RCP future emissions scenarios

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On this page we describe the RCP future emissions scenarios as they have been implemented into GEOS-Chem.

RCP scenarios in GEOS-Chem v10-01 and higher versions

Overview

Christoph Keller wrote:

I have downloaded the files from scratch instead of converting the [existing] bpch-files back to netCDF. Interestingly, the ECCAD homepage has more detailed RCP files than the official RCP site, so I decided to use the ECCAD files.
I only downloaded the totals per species. For each of the four RCP scenarios, it would also be possible to get detailed sectorial information (9 sectors in total). If needed, we can easily download these files and update the HEMCO configuration file accordingly. I only did some cosmetic changes to some of the downloaded files, e.g. to convert units from kg/m2/s to kgC/m2/s. We could do this within HEMCO, but I think its cleaner this way. I also compressed all files.

Data Files

In GEOS-Chem v10-01 and newer versions, the RCP future scenario data files are read with the HEMCO emissions component. We have obtained new RCP data files (in COARDS-compliant netCDF format) for use with HEMCO. These new data files are contained in the HEMCO data directory tree. For detailed instructions on how to download these data files to your disk server, please see our Downloading the HEMCO data directories wiki post.

--Bob Y. 14:21, 27 February 2015 (EST)

Setting the HEMCO configuration file

Christoph Keller wrote:

I added the capability to linearly interpolate between time steps to HEMCO. This is really useful/important for the RCP scenarios where only few years are available. You can use the flag ‘I’ for the time cycle attribute to interpolate between time steps. Note that this will always interpolate linearly between two consecutive time steps, so it won’t work properly if you have monthly data that are two years apart (e.g. monthly data for 2008 and 2010). The interpolation frequency is determined by the update frequency provided in the HEMCO configuration file. For instance, the RCP netCDF files contain data for 2005, 2010, 2020, 2030, …, 2100. Using the following time stamps will update the emissions every year by linearly interpolate between the two closest years:
         RCP45_NO  ...   2005-2100/1/1/0  I ...
So if the simulation starts on July 1 2013, the data will be calculated as 0.7 * DATA_2010 + 0.3 * DATA_2020. As soon as the simulation enters 2014, the data is updated to 0.6 * DATA_2010 + 0.4 * DATA_2020. This is the default setting.
Now if you set:
         RCP45_NO  ...  2005-2100/1-12/1/0  I ... 
the data will be updated every month, again linearly interpolating between the two closest years. So in this case, the data for July 1 2013 would be calculated as 0.694 * DATA_2010 + 0.306 * DATA_2020, and as soon as the simulation enters August 2013, the data is updated to 0.693 * DATA_2010 + 0.307 * DATA_2020.

--Bob Y. 14:21, 27 February 2015 (EST)

Previous issues that are now resolved

Fix missing HCOOH factors for RCP in HEMCO_Config.rc

This update was included in v11-02f (approved 17 May 2018).

Sebastian Eastham wrote:

It looks like there’s a missing entry in the HEMCO_Config.rc RCP scenarios. Specifically, HCOOH emissions from all of the RCPs use scaling factors 57 and 58, but neither of those are defined. I’m guessing one of these is 0.25 (based on Chris Holmes’ original document describing the implementation of RCP emissions in GEOS-Chem, which stated that 25% of all acids are assumed to be HCOOH) but I wasn’t sure what the other factor might be.

Christoph Keller wrote:

I'm pretty sure that the two scale factors are 0.25 (fraction of HCOOH / total acids) and 0.779661, which converts the molecular weight of RCP acids (59 g/mol) to HCOOH (46 g/mol). So the two scale factor entries should be:

57 RCP_HCOOHfraction 0.25 - - - xy unitless 1
58 RCP_ACIDStoHCOOH 0.779661 - - - xy unitless 1

--Bob Yantosca (talk) 16:02, 17 May 2018 (UTC)

References

When using or displaying the dataset, the user is requested to indicate the corresponding citation:

  1. Detlef P. van Vuuren & James A. Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & John Weyant (2011), A special issue on the RCPs, Climatic Change., 109 (Special issue) : 1 - 4
  2. RCP3PD Reference: van Vuuren, D., M. den Elzen, P. Lucas, B. Eickhout, B. Strengers, B. van Ruijven, S. Wonink, R. van Houdt (2007), Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs, Climatic Change, 81(2): 119 - 159.
  3. RCP4.5 Reference: Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, H. Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, R. Richels, 2007, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (Part A) and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application (Part B)., A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research : pp 154
  4. RCP 6.0 Reference:: Fujino, J., Nair, R., Kainuma, M., Masui, T., Matsuoka, Y. (2006), Multi-gas Mitigation Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios Using Aim Global Model, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 132 pp. Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy issue, Special Issue (3): pp 343-354
  5. RCP 8.5 Reference:: Keywan Riahi, Arnulf Grübler, and Nebojsa Nakicenovic, (2007), Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(7): 887-935.

--Bob Y. 12:43, 27 February 2015 (EST)

Obsolete information

These sections pertain to code or data that has been removed from the most recent versions of GEOS-Chem. We shall keep this information here for reference.

RCP scenarios in GEOS-Chem versions prior to v10-01

Obsolete.jpg

This update was tested in the 1-month benchmark simulation v9-02m and approved on 30 Jul 2013.

'This implementation of RCP was replaced in GEOS-Chem v10-01. The RCP future emission scenarios are now implemented into GEOS-Chem via the HEMCO emissions component. This entire section is now obsolete. We shall leave this text here for reference.

Chris Holmes (then UC Irvine) has implemented the RCP anthropogenic emission inventories into GEOS-Chem. Please see this document for a description of the RCP emission scenarios, implementation into GEOS-Chem, and comparison to existing GEOS-Chem emission inventories.

--Melissa Payer 15:51, 9 January 2013 (EST)

Discrepancies when comparing to prior GEOS-Chem emissions

The large difference in O3 and OH seen over the oceans when comparing RCP emissions to the prior GEOS-Chem emissions is due to a bug in the ICOADS-AMVER ship emission inventory. See Section 3.3 of this document. The ICOADS-AMVER inventory should be 5.0 Tg(N)/yr, but was actually 1.5 Tg(N)/yr in GEOS-Chem (v9-01-03 and earlier). Correcting this bug dramatically reduces the differences in simulated O3 and OH concentrations over the oceans and makes the CH4 lifetime in the RCP about 5% longer than in the base GEOS-Chem simulation.

--Chris Holmes 14:50, 3 May 2013 (EDT)

Bug fix for BC/OC biofuels when using RCP scenarios

This update was tested in the 1-month benchmark simulation v9-02r and approved on 14 Nov 2013.

This bug fix affects only users of GEOS-Chem v9-02. In GEOS-Chem v10-01 and higher versions, ship emissions are handled via the HEMCO emissions component.

Colette Heald wrote:

I was just looking at some output using the RCP scenarios patch and it looks to me like there might be a problem with biofuels for BC/OC. When I run a simulation with RCP emissions, there are non-zero values for biofuel emissions in the diagnostics for BC/OC. From Chris' documentation all the anthropogenic RCP emissions include both fossil fuel and biofuel so biofuel emissions should be zero'ed out for all species. It looks like that's the case for NH3/SOx/NOx but not for BC/OC. Looking at your code, it seems like that's because routine ANTHRO_CARB_TBOND is always called and this occurs before ANTHRO_CARB_RCP. So while the fossil fuel emissions are over-written with the RCP values, the biofuel emissions from Bond et al. stay. To fix this, an if statement just needs to be added so that ANTHRO_CARB_TBOND isn't called when the RCP emissions flag is true.

--Bob Y. 15:25, 14 November 2013 (EST)

Bug fix for RCP ship NOx emissions

This update was tested in the 1-month benchmark simulation v9-02r and approved on 14 Nov 2013.

This bug fix affects only users of GEOS-Chem v9-02. In GEOS-Chem v10-01 and higher versions, ship emissions are handled via the HEMCO emissions component.

In setemis.F, LRCPSHIP needs to be added to the IF statement that checks if ship emissions are turned on. Otherwise, if only RCP ship emissions are used, the IF statement won't be met and RCP ship NOx emissions will not be added to SHIP or the REMIS array.

              !========================================================
              ! Ship NOx (emitted as NO, O3, HNO3 after plume evolution)
              ! [molec/cm3/s]
              ! Distribute emissions thru the entire boundary layer
              !========================================================
               
              ! Update only if ship emissions are turned on
              IF ( LICOADSSHIP .or. LEDGARSHIP .or. LEMEPSHIP .or.
     &             LRCPSHIP ) THEN

                 ! Surface area of grid box
                 AREA_CM2 = GET_AREA_CM2( I, J, 1 )
  
                 ! Reset
                 SHIP = 0D0
                 
                 ! handle global inventory first
                 IF ( LEDGARSHIP ) THEN 

                     ! Get SHIP EDGAR emissions for NOx [molec/cm2/s]
                    SHIP = GET_EDGAR_NOx( I, J, 
    &                      MOLEC_CM2_S=.TRUE., SHIP=.TRUE.)
                        
                 
                 ! ICOADS ship emissions (cklee,7/09/09)
                 ELSE IF ( LICOADSSHIP ) THEN

                    ! Get ICOADS  emissions for NOx [molec/cm2/s]
                    SHIP = GET_ICOADS_SHIP( I, J, IDTNO, 
    &                      MOLEC_CM2_S=.TRUE. )
                 
                 ! RCP ship emissions (cdh, 10/14/11)
                 ELSE IF ( LRCPSHIP ) THEN

                    ! Get SHIP RCP emissions for NOx [molec/cm2/s]
                    SHIP = GET_RCP_EMISSION( I, J, IDTNO,  
    &                      LAND=.FALSE., SHIP=.TRUE.)

                 ENDIF

--Melissa Sulprizio 18:00, 15 November 2013 (EST)

Bug fix for RCP SO2 emissions in GEOS-Chem v9-02

This issue only affects users of GEOS-Chem v9-02. In GEOS-Chem v10-01 and higher versions, all emissions are now handled by the HEMCO emissions component.

Chris Holmes wrote:

Li Ke called to my attention that RCP SO2 emissions are zero in v9-02 because AREA_CM2 is set to zero at some point. (I don’t think this was a problem in v9-01-02 and v9-01-03). The solution is simple. Add the following code around line 9990 in in SUBROUTINE READ_ANTHRO_SOx of sulfate_mod.f.
                 ! Grid box surface area [cm2]
                 AREA_CM2 = GET_AREA_CM2( I, J, 1 )

                 ! Convert molec/cm2/s -> kg/s
                 EDG_SO2 = EDG_SO2 * AREA_CM2 / XNUMOL(IDTSO2) 
Apologies if this is a repeat bug report, but I had not heard whether Li Ke has already alerted you to this.
Evan Couzo is also sending in another bug report soon concerning OC RCP emissions that is caused by a problem in the upstream files that are distributed by IPCC/IIASA. I will let him summarize.

--Bob Y. 11:01, 24 December 2014 (EST)

Error in RCP OC emission rates

This issue only affects users of GEOS-Chem v9-02. In GEOS-Chem v10-01 and higher versions, all emissions are now handled by the HEMCO emissions component.

Evan Couzo wrote:

I've found an error in the RCP emissions files vis a vis OC molecular weight. The problem originates in the IPCC emissions files. Three scenarios use a molecular weight of 106.8, and the fourth scenario uses 12.0.
The attached document describes the problem in detail. I have created new emissions files (2x2.5), which correct the OC emissions rates.

Users of GEOS-Chem v9-02 may use the new RCP emission files by following the steps below.

Download the corrected RCP files

You may obtain the corrected bpch files for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 using:

ftp ftp.as.harvard.edu
cd gcgrid/data/GEOS_2x2.5/RCP_201206
mget *

The updated files include the tag OCfix in the filename.

Modify the code in rcp_mod.F

In routine LOAD_RCP_EMISSIONS, change ILENAME for land and ship emissions to point to the corrected files. The code should now look like this:

     !=================================================================
     ! Land and ship emissions
     !=================================================================

     IF( LRCP .OR. LRCPSHIP) THEN

        ! Land file name
        IF ( trim(RCPNAME) == 'RCP60' ) THEN
           FILENAME = TRIM( DATA_DIR )        // 'RCP_201206/'     //
    &                        trim( RCPNAME )  // '/'               //
    &                        trim( RCPNAME )  // '_anthropogenic_' // 
    &                        trim( YEARSTR )  // '.'               //
    &                        GET_RES_EXT()    // '.bpch' 
        ELSE
           FILENAME = TRIM( DATA_DIR )        // 'RCP_201206/'     //
    &                        trim( RCPNAME )  // '/'               //
    &                        trim( RCPNAME )  // '_anthropogenic_' // 
    &                        trim( YEARSTR )  // '.'               //
    &                        GET_RES_EXT()    // '.OCfix.bpch' 
        ENDIF

        ! Date for emissions
        ! Land emissions dated Jan 1 because all months are the same
        XTAU = GET_TAU0( 1, 1, RCPYEAR ) 

        ! Read data (LAND -> TYPE=1)
        CALL READ_RCP_BPCH( FILENAME, TYPE=1, TAU0=XTAU )

        ! Ship file name
        IF ( trim(RCPNAME) == 'RCP60' ) THEN
           FILENAME = TRIM( DATA_DIR )        // 'RCP_201206/'     //
    &                        trim( RCPNAME )  // '/'               //
    &                        trim( RCPNAME )  // '_ships_'         // 
    &                        trim( YEARSTR )  // '.'               //
    &                        GET_RES_EXT()    // '.bpch' 
        ELSE
           FILENAME = TRIM( DATA_DIR )        // 'RCP_201206/'     //
    &                        trim( RCPNAME )  // '/'               //
    &                        trim( RCPNAME )  // '_ships_'         // 
    &                        trim( YEARSTR )  // '.'               //
    &                        GET_RES_EXT()    // '.OCfix.bpch' 
        ENDIF

        ! Date for emissions
        XTAU = GET_TAU0( THISMONTH, 1, RCPYEAR )  

        ! Read data (SHIP -> TYPE=2)
        CALL READ_RCP_BPCH( FILENAME, TYPE=2, TAU0=XTAU )
        
     ENDIF

--Melissa Sulprizio 15:41, 29 January 2015 (EST)

References

  1. Holmes, C.D., M. J. Prather, O.A. Søvde, and G. Myhre, Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 285-302, doi:10.5194/acp-13-285-2013, 2013.

--Bob Y. 14:29, 27 February 2015 (EST)